... the introduction of new categories or emergence of new brands. It also assumes that individual marketer budgets will tend to hold constant over time. Maintaining the downbeat mode, Wieser doesn't foresee any significant new categories/brands emerging in 2012.
The report predicts that spending levels will generally flatten through the middle of 2012, after which the impact of status quo “new normal” should return, with weak growth in the periods that immediately follow. In the shadow of August’s U.S. debt downgrade, budget-setters approached uncommitted advertising expenditures with hesitation, although not to the extent initiatives were halted outright (as occurred during 4Q 2008).
Among the key points arising from the report are:
- Expectations for soft economic conditions reinforce short-term view and drive long-term view.
- Macro-economic data offers a proxy for new category and brand creation. Quantifying the creation of brand-differentiated categories is an elusive goal, but PRG posits that such activity tends to coincide with economic growth.
- The report focuses upon Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE] and Industrial Production given the high correlation these variables have with changes in media owners’ advertising revenues.
- The Philadelphia Federal Reserve recently released its updated Survey of Professional Forecasters, which provides consensus expectations from more than fifty economists. The survey indicates approximately 4% growth in nominal PCE in 2012, which compares with nearly 6% levels from between 1991 and 2007.
- If, in parallel, Industrial Production rises by 3% the regression model used by PRG to predict advertising growth yields only 1% growth.
- Assuming industrial production picks up in following years - reflecting a modestly improving economy in 2013 and beyond - we would expect 2-3% growth rates for the market over longer time horizons, at least until broader economic conditions meaningfully improve.
Individual medium growth trends in 2012 will reinforce a “have/have-not” media economy, between TV and Digital on one hand and other forms of traditional media on the other.
Simply put, in scarce times, marketers are concentrating their budgets among their primary medium (often network TV for large brands seeking awareness) and a secondary medium (often Digital platforms for traditional brand marketers, who typically pursue engagement-based outcomes among a subset of the population who are aware of their brand attributes). In general, we expect to see National Mass Media continuing to gain share at the expense of Local Mass Media.
But Direct Media should continue to grow faster than Mass Media. In this context, mobile advertising will grow fastest, up 37% in 2012, decelerating in percentage terms from 2011, but adding a comparable amount of dollars in absolute terms.
Paid Search will add the most in absolute dollars among all media during 2012, up from $14.8B to $17.0B. Also of note: while PRG expects National Cable will perform well versus other media, that medium should slow significantly in 2012, rising by only 4.8% (compared to a gain of 9.0% in 2011).
Unsurprisingly, Local Newspapers will fare worst during 2012, falling by 9.4% to generate $1.8B less revenue than in 2011. Only Directories will perform weaker in percentage terms, falling by another 22.6% for the year.
The complete report can be accessed by clicking here.